About & Methodology

TurfSplit publishes fantasy football rankings that are computed, not opined. Every number on this site traces back to official league box scores — there is no editorial thumb on the scale.

Data

Player identities, season statistics and game logs come from public sports data APIs covering official NFL box scores. Rosters and statistics are refreshed automatically on a nightly schedule.

Scoring

Full-PPR scoring: 0.04 points per passing yard, 4 per passing TD, −2 per interception, 0.1 per rushing and receiving yard, 6 per rushing and receiving TD, 1 per reception, −2 per fumble lost. Players are ranked by total season points with a minimum of 5 games.

Tiers and form

Tier breaks are placed in 8%-of-the-leader score bands — a natural-cliff method, not fixed buckets. The form arrow compares a player's last five games against his season average.

Floor, ceiling and consistency

An average hides how a player gets there, so we compute each player's full game-by-game distribution. Floor is his 10th-percentile game, ceiling his 90th-percentile game. Consistency is the share of games where he delivered at least 75% of his own average. Boom rate counts games at 125%+ of average; bust rate counts games under half of it. Two players with the same average can be very different assets — these numbers show the difference.

Projections & draft value

Projected points per gameblends the player's last-season average (65%) with his final-five-game form (35%), computed from played games only. Expected gamestakes last season's availability and regresses it 30% toward a full schedule — injuries don't fully repeat, but durability isn't random either. Projected totalis simply the two multiplied. The "typical game" range on the draft board is the middle 50% of last season's game results (25th–75th percentile) — it describes what already happened, not a projection confidence interval.

The NFL draft boards rank by VORP— value over replacement: a player's projected season total minus the projected total of the replacement-level player at his position. The assumed league is 12 teams, 1QB / 2RB / 2WR / 1TE / 1 FLEX, Full-PPR, which gives replacement baselines of QB12, RB24, WR36 and TE12. On the superflex board the QB baseline moves to QB28, not QB24: the superflex slot is effectively a second QB in most lineups — roughly 24 quarterbacks locked in as starters — andteams roster backup QBs on top, so the best quarterback actually available as a replacement sits deeper than the last starter. We tested QB24, QB28, QB30 and QB32 — QB24 buried elite QBs behind five skill players, QB28 and QB30 produced nearly identical boards, and QB32 (the league's single worst starter) was too extreme. QB28 is the middle of that stable range and moves each quarterback up by roughly 110 points of value versus 1QB. This is why a mid-tier QB with a big raw projection doesn't outrank an elite running back — raw points measure scoring, VORP measures what a draft pick actually buys. The raw list still exists as the separately-labeled projected scoring leaderboard.

One superflex caveat:ESPN ADP is collected from standard 1QB/default drafts, where quarterbacks go far later than they do in superflex rooms. That makes it a cross-format reference, so the superflex board shows the raw pick gap for context but never a value grade — grading superflex value against a 1QB market would manufacture fake "steals" at quarterback.

ESPN ADP is never an input to any projection or ranking. The market price is used for exactly one thing: measuring the gap between where we rank a player and where drafters take him. That gap, scaled to draft position (a 3-pick difference matters at the top, not in round 10), produces the five value grades — Strong value, Value, Fair, Rich, Very rich. Hover any grade to see the exact pick gap behind it.

Injury designationscome from the ESPN report and are shown with the date we fetched them. In the offseason a "day to day" tag often reflects the final report of last season rather than draft-day availability — treat it as a prompt to check the player's outlook, not as breaking news.

Risk grades

The outlook block on player pages shows three risk grades, each a transparent heuristic. Injury risk is based on games missed last season (under 12% missed = Low, 12–30% = Medium, over 30% = High) and jumps to High whenever a player is currently on the ESPN injury report. Age/workload riskcompares a player's age against the historical decline point for his position (28+ for RBs, 37+ for QBs, 31+ for WRs and TEs): within two years of it = Medium, past it = High. Role security reads position rank and tier — top-3 at the position = Elite, tiers 1–3 = Solid, tier 4 = Contested, below = Unsettled. These grades feed context, not the rankings themselves.

News

News stories are aggregated from trusted outlets, verified against our own statistical database, rewritten by our editorial pipeline and tagged with a fantasy verdict (add, drop, start, sit, watch). Every article links the players involved to their live profiles.

Independence

TurfSplit is not affiliated with the NFL or any team. Team and league names are used for identification only.