Mayfield vs. Murray Round 4: Baker's Flores History Says Buy Him
Murray leads the head-to-head 3-0, but Mayfield has five TDs in two career games against Brian Flores defenses. That matters Sunday.
History vs. Flores defenses and desperation make him a confident QB1.
- Murray leads NFL head-to-head vs. Mayfield 3-0
- Mayfield: 5 TD, 1 INT in 2 games vs. Flores defenses
- Mayfield 2025: 3693 yds, 26 TD, 274 PPR pts
- Bucs face 0-3 with a loss; Vikings eye 3-0
- Mayfield ranks #12 at QB in our model
Sunday hands us the fourth NFL meeting between former Oklahoma teammates Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, and the record is lopsided: Murray owns it 3-0. But this one carries more weight than bragging rights. The Buccaneers are staring down 0-3 if they slip, while Murray's Vikings can climb to 3-0. Two Heisman winners, one 2017 (Mayfield) and one 2018 (Murray), meeting with very different stakes.
For fantasy purposes, ignore the personal head-to-head and lock onto one number: Mayfield has posted five touchdown passes and just one interception in his two career games against a Brian Flores defense. He beat the Dolphins with Cleveland in 2019, then stunned the Vikings in 2023 during Flores's debut as Minnesota's defensive coordinator. That's a matchup he's historically feasted on.
The season-long production backs him up. Mayfield threw for 3,693 yards with 26 touchdowns and 11 picks across 17 games in 2025, adding 382 rushing yards and a score, good for 274 PPR points and our #12 ranking at quarterback (#26 overall). That's a rock-solid QB1 baseline, and the Flores wrinkle only sweetens it.
The Murray Problem
Murray is a tougher call for a different reason. He played just five games in 2025, throwing for 962 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions while chipping in 173 rushing yards and a score, 78 PPR points total. That limited sample dropped him to our #232 overall rank and #40 at the position. The rushing upside is always there, but the volume simply hasn't been.
The Fantasy Fallout
Start Mayfield with confidence. A team facing 0-3 tends to throw, and his track record against Flores schemes is exactly the kind of edge you chase in a QB1 decision. As for Murray, he's a matchup-dependent streamer at best right now given the thin 2025 body of work and his #40 positional rank. If you've got a healthier, higher-floor option, sit him and wait until his usage and games played tell a clearer story.
