Brian Thomas Jr. is ranked #40 among 197 eligible NFL wide receivers. He profiles as a bench or matchup-based option — draft late or stream when the schedule lines up.
Percentile80%
2025 season results · Computed from official box scores · Full-PPR scoring, ranked by last-season total points · updated July 27
VALUE PICK
Brian Thomas Jr. 2026 fantasy outlook
10.0Proj FPTS · ~150 / 15 games
7.5–11.7Typical game · middle 50%
#881QB draft rank
#106Superflex rank
#130 · WR40Scoring rank · position
100.5ADP (ESPN drafts)
We rank him #88 overall and WR40 in 1QB Full-PPR drafts versus an ADP of 100.5 — the market drafts him 28 spots later than we rank him. Strong value if he's still there. Projection drivers: shrinking workload (5.8 touches/gm late vs 6.7 season), late-season gains in per-touch efficiency.
INJURY RISK Medium?AGE/WORKLOAD RISK Low?ROLE SECURITY Unsettled?How we grade risk
Projection updated July 27 · ESPN ADP updated July 27 · Range = 25th–75th percentile of his 2025 game log
JAX 2026 schedule — bye week 7
17 GAMES · SEASON STARTS SEPT
W1
CLE
W2
@DEN
W3
NE
W4
@CIN
W5
PHI
W6
HOU
W7
BYE
W8
IND
W9
@BAL
W10
@TEN
W11
@NYG
W12
TEN
W13
@CHI
W14
PIT
W15
@HOU
W16
@DAL
W17
WSH
W18
@IND
Plan around the week-7 bye when pairing Thomas with other WRs on your roster.
Brian Thomas Jr. consistency and floor
14 GAMES
4.8
Floor (p10)
9.9
Average
17.1
Ceiling (p90)
Consistency75%+ of average delivered79%
Boom rate125%+ of average14%
Bust rateunder half of average14%
9.9
Season avg FPTS
10.3
Last 10 FPTS
9.7
Last 5 FPTS
Thomas vs other wide receivers
PERCENTILE · 197 RANKED
Targets9184
Receptions4880
Rec yards70784
Rec TD265
Fantasy PPG9.979
Percentile among all ranked NFL wide receivers · 99 = best
He's a depth option, not a priority pick: #120 overall, #40 at his position. Draft late or stream based on matchups.
QWhat round should Brian Thomas Jr. be drafted in?
His current ADP in ESPN drafts is 100.5 (roughly round 9 in a 12-team league). We rank him #88 in 1QB Full-PPR drafts, so he is a value at that price.
QHow many fantasy points will Brian Thomas Jr. score in 2026?
We project 10 PPR points per game across an expected 15 games — approximately 150 points for the season. His typical game last season landed between 7.5 and 11.7 (middle 50% of results), and that puts him #130 in projected scoring (#88 on the 1QB draft board once positional value is applied).
QHow consistent is Brian Thomas Jr. for fantasy?
He delivered at least 75% of his average in 79% of games, with a floor of 4.8 and a ceiling of 17.1 fantasy points. He boomed (125%+ of average) in 14% of games and busted (under half his average) in 14%.
Answers computed by TurfSplit from official box scores.
