Baker Mayfield Owns Joe Burrow 3-0 as a Starter — Week 1 Renews It
Mayfield has never lost a start to Burrow, and he opens 2026 as a QB12 after a 274-point PPR season. Here's the fantasy read.
QB12 upside with a plus matchup and rushing floor makes him a Week 1 stream.
- Mayfield is 3-0 as a starter vs Burrow
- All three wins came in 2020-21 with Cleveland
- Mayfield: 274 PPR pts in 2025, our QB12
- Burrow played just 8 games in 2025 (135 PPR)
- Week 1 features two Heisman-vs-Heisman games
Baker Mayfield has a tidy little party trick: he has never lost a start to Joe Burrow. The Buccaneers quarterback carries a 3-0 record as a starter against his Bengals counterpart into Week 1, and he'll try to make it 4-0 when Tampa Bay visits Cincinnati. All three of those wins came back in 2020 and 2021, when Mayfield was still throwing passes in Cleveland.
For the record-keepers, Mayfield did technically share a field with Burrow in 2022 as a Panther — but P.J. Walker started that one, and Mayfield only entered after halftime with Carolina already buried 35-0. So the head-to-head as starters stays clean at three games, all Mayfield wins. Nice story. The fantasy stakes are the part that actually matters for your lineup.
Where They Stand for 2026
Mayfield is the more reliable fantasy asset heading into the opener. He posted 274 PPR points across all 17 games in 2025 (actual), throwing for 3,693 yards with 26 touchdowns against 11 picks and chipping in 382 rushing yards and a score. That production lands him at our QB12 — a fringe starter with real weekly upside, especially with the rushing floor.
Burrow is the trickier case. He played just eight games in 2025 (actual) and still stuffed the box score when he was out there: 1,809 yards, 17 touchdowns, only five interceptions, worth 135 PPR points. The volume-per-game was elite, but the games-missed tells you everything about why he sits at our QB31 for now. Encouragingly, his last five outings ran +3.1 fantasy points above his season average, a form arrow pointing up.
This is also one of two Week 1 games pairing Heisman winners, with Caleb Williams (our QB5 after a 333-point 2025) facing Bryce Young over in Charlotte. But Bucs-Bengals is the one with playoff-race weight attached — both teams badly want a fast start, which usually means both offenses get the ball moving early.
The Fantasy Call
Start Mayfield. He's your QB12 with a matchup that should invite volume, and his legs give you a floor even on a quiet passing night. Burrow is the harder start-or-sit — the talent is unquestioned and the recent form is trending up, but if he's fully healthy and locked into his usual workload, his ceiling makes him a viable Week 1 play too. Manage Burrow week to week and lean on that snap count before you commit.
