Baker Mayfield Set to Feast on Browns as Bucs Open Big Week 2 Favorites
Tampa Bay is projected to bury Cleveland 30-13, and Mayfield — QB12 in our rankings — draws a plus matchup against Deshaun Watson's stalled offense.
Revenge game vs a Browns defense that just gave up a beating to Jacksonville.
- Bucs projected to win 30-13, favored by 8.5
- Mayfield: QB12, 274 PPR pts in 2025 (17 games)
- Bucs 3-0 SU in home openers with Mayfield
- Watson 0-6 SU over his last six starts
- Browns 1-10 ATS last 11 road games as 6+ dogs
Baker Mayfield gets his second-ever crack at the team that gave up on him, and the setup could hardly be better. Tampa Bay is projected to run out to a 30-13 win as an 8.5-point home favorite over the Browns in Week 2, with Cleveland dragging in a Deshaun Watson offense that already looked lost in a Week 1 loss to Jacksonville.
Mayfield is our QB12 heading into the year, coming off a 2025 campaign (17 games) that produced 3,693 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 382 rushing yards for 274 PPR points. He's traded away exactly once since 2022, and the Bucs are 3-0 straight up in home openers with him under center. This is the kind of spot fantasy managers dream about.
Why the Browns Can't Keep Up
Watson opened the Jacksonville loss with an interception on his first drive and nearly coughed up two more. He never looked settled in the pocket, and the broader trend is ugly: dating back to before his Achilles injuries, he's 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread over his last six starts. The Browns are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games as underdogs of six or more points.
That's the backdrop Mayfield walks into. Cleveland's offense won't force Tampa Bay's defense to do much, which means more clock and more possessions for Mayfield to pad the box score against a former employer he'd clearly love to run it up on.
The Fantasy Fallout
There's zero reason to overthink this one. Mayfield is a rock-solid QB1 play in Week 2 — plus matchup, home favorite, revenge narrative and a defense that just got throttled by Jacksonville. Lock him in.
On the other side, Watson remains unstartable in every format until he shows something. If you're chasing a Cleveland skill guy, temper expectations in a game that could get out of hand early; garbage-time volume is the only realistic path to relevance here.
