Trevor Lawrence Cleaned Up His Turnovers — And His Fantasy Ceiling
Vrabel says the old, giveaway-prone Lawrence is gone. The numbers back it up: one turnover over his last six games of 2025.
Cleaner decisions plus rushing upside make him a top-tier QB2.
- One turnover over final six games of 2025
- 19 total TDs in that same six-game stretch
- Week 1: 4 pass TDs, just 5 incompletions vs Browns
- 340 PPR pts in 2025 (actual), our #4 QB
- Last 5 games: +8.2 fantasy pts vs season average
Mike Vrabel used to be able to bank on a Trevor Lawrence giveaway. Not anymore. Ahead of the Patriots-Jaguars matchup, Vrabel told reporters Wednesday that the quarterback he faced three or four years ago — the one you could pencil in for three or four turnovers — has been replaced by a more decisive, more mature version who moves the ball downfield while keeping it out of harm's way.
The tape agrees. After a four-turnover meltdown (three picks, one lost fumble) in a 27-24 overtime win over Arizona in Week 12 of 2025, Lawrence flipped a switch. Over the final six regular-season games he coughed the ball up exactly once — a Week 17 interception against Indy — while stacking 19 total touchdowns. That's not a hot streak. That's a different player.
The reformed version carried into 2026, too. In Week 1 he torched Cleveland for four touchdown passes on just five incompletions in a 34-10 romp. Week 2 was quieter — one interception in a 20-13 loss at Denver — but a single giveaway on the road is a far cry from the old boom-or-bust Lawrence.
Why Vrabel Actually Matters Here
Vrabel knows Lawrence better than most. As Titans coach he went 3-3 against him, and in those six meetings Lawrence produced 13 total touchdowns against eight turnovers — including one game with four scores and zero giveaways and, memorably, one game with no touchdowns and four turnovers. Vrabel's whole path to a 2-1 Patriots start hinges on baiting the version of Lawrence that no longer seems to exist.
The scrambling is the underrated wrinkle. Vrabel singled out how Lawrence turns broken drop-backs into either a downfield strike or a decisive run — plays that read as guaranteed first downs. That mobility is exactly what juices his fantasy floor: he added 359 rushing yards and nine rushing scores in 2025 alongside 4,007 passing yards and 29 touchdowns.
The Fantasy Verdict
Lawrence finished 2025 as our No. 4 quarterback with 340 PPR points (actual), and his last five games are running +8.2 fantasy points above his season average. If a nervous manager in your league is still souring on him after the Denver loss, this is your window. Trade for him, start him against a Patriots defense that has to gamble to win, and enjoy the rushing upside that turns his mediocre games into fine ones. Buy low while you can.
