Rams Are Historic Super Bowl Favorites — And History Says That's a Trap
LA opens at +550, the shortest preseason Super Bowl price in 24 years. The last four teams to carry odds like this all fell short.
MVP QB1 in an elite offense, but the back injury is a lingering red flag.
- Rams open +550, shortest SB price since 2002
- Stafford: 4,707 yds, 46 TD, 0 INT in 2025
- Nacua: 375 PPR pts, WR1 on TurfSplit
- Last 4 sub-+1000 favorites all missed their win total
- Rams over/under set at 11.5 wins
The Los Angeles Rams open the 2026 season as +550 Super Bowl favorites — the shortest preseason price any team has carried since the league went to 32 clubs in 2002. That's not just first place on the board; it's a full tier above the Bills (+1000) and Ravens (+1100). Only five teams have ever been priced under +1000 in the preseason, and the Rams are just the second NFC squad to land there.
The roster earns it. Matthew Stafford is coming off an MVP-level year — 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns and zero interceptions across 17 games. He's flanked by Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, backed by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, and the front office plugged its one hole by poaching corners Trent McDuffie (trade) and Jaylen Watson from Kansas City. On paper, it's the best group in football.
History Isn't On Their Side
Here's the cold part. The four previous teams to carry a sub-+1000 preseason tag all underachieved. The 2003 Bucs, defending champs, blew a 35-14 lead to the Colts in Week 5 and finished 7-9 out of the playoffs. Brady's 2009 Patriots went 10-6 and got waxed 33-14 by Baltimore in the wild-card round. Peyton's 2010 Colts also went 10-6 before a 17-16 home loss to the Jets. Three of four finished under their win total.
The lone exception was the 2018 Patriots, who pushed their projection at 11-5, survived that overtime AFC title game in Kansas City — Dee Ford's offside and all — then beat these same Rams 13-3 in the Super Bowl. The Rams' over/under this year sits at 11.5. Feels like a lock. So did the others.
The Fantasy Read
The narrative risk barely dents the fantasy value. Nacua is the WR1 on TurfSplit's board after 375 PPR points and 129 catches. Adams cleared 14 touchdowns and 223 points as a WR9. Stafford ranks as the overall QB1 (No. 3 player) and threw a football through a whole season without an interception. This offense prints points regardless of the seed line.
The one thing worth monitoring: Stafford's back. He missed most of 2025 training camp with it and, at the NFL Honors ceremony, joked about how sore it'd be after the long flight to the Week 1 game in Australia. He played all 17 games last year, but it's clearly on his mind. Hold him as your QB1 with confidence — just don't be shocked if the injury report gives you a scare before that trip Down Under. If a nervous manager panics, that's your buy-low window.
