Rams Sink to 2-4 as Stafford's Deep Ball and Special Teams Crater

The preseason Super Bowl favorites are a mess. The Los Angeles Rams sit at 2-4 and dead last in the NFC West after Sunday's 18-16 faceplant against Arizona — a 13.5-point favorite losing outright, the biggest upset by an NFL team in roughly three years. For a roster built around the reigning MVP, a loaded receiver room and a defense that added Myles Garrett and coaxed Aaron Donald out of retirement, this is a full-blown crisis.

The projections are brutal. Our SportsLine model has the Rams' playoff odds crashing from 90.1% at the start of the season to 26.0%, and their Super Bowl probability has fallen off a cliff — from 16.3% all the way down to 1.5%. Only one team in NFL history has won a title while under .500 this deep into a season: the 2001 Patriots. The other four preseason favorites to start 2-4 or worse over the last 50 years didn't even reach their conference title game.

Stafford Isn't Pushing the Ball

Here's the fantasy-relevant root of the problem: the deep ball has vanished. Stafford led the league in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46) on his way to MVP last year, ranking third in share of completions gaining 20+ yards at 19%. This season he's 14th at 13%. Through six games he's thrown for 1,794 yards with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions — 118 PPR points — which isn't bad, but it's not the explosive version that made this offense terrifying.

The Puka Nacua connection, in particular, has short-circuited. Stafford is 8-of-20 with no touchdowns and two picks when targeting Nacua 10-plus yards downfield this season. The offense still moves — L.A. ranks top three in yards per game (401.3) — but it's 20th in scoring at 22.5 per game. The Giants and Steelers are putting up more points. The yards are empty calories.

The Hidden Killer: Special Teams

If you want one number that explains the losses, it's this: the Rams own the worst special teams EPA in the NFL at -35.8, roughly 36 points of damage in six weeks. The next-worst team sits at -16.9. Their field goal percentage is a league-worst 60%, and they're the only team ranking bottom-10 in both kickoff and punt return averages. That's why games stay close and tip the wrong way.

For fantasy managers, nothing here changes the core holds. Nacua is still our WR1 (#2 overall) with 92 PPR points in just four games — the volume and target share are elite, so you keep starting him and bet the downfield reps normalize. Adams, our WR10, is quietly rolling: 480 yards and four touchdowns, 102 PPR points, and he's up 2.3 fantasy points over his season average across his last five, though his new injury is worth monitoring before lineups lock. Stafford stays a back-end QB1 (our QB10) you can ride in good matchups. The team may be sinking, but the pass-catchers are still cashing — hold tight.