Stafford vs. Allen: Rams-Bills Shapes Up as a Shootout to Chase
Stafford torched this Bills D for 44 two years ago, and Buffalo now ranks 29th in rushing and passing success rate. Load up your lineups.
QB1 in our ranks facing a Bills D ranked 29th in success rate.
- Bills rank 29th in both rushing and passing success rate
- Stafford dropped 44 on Buffalo two seasons ago
- Stafford is our #1 QB with 62 PPR pts (2026, 4 games)
- Allen has 7 rush TDs already in 2026 (4 games)
- Buffalo plays this one without D.J. Moore
The 3-1 Bills limp into this one off their first loss of the year, a 26-21 heartbreaker where Drake Maye — our #19 overall and #6 QB on 103 PPR points through five games in 2026 — marched down the field in under three minutes to steal it. New England did that while the Eagles went a brutal 1-for-16 on late downs the week prior. If a sputtering offense can hang points on Buffalo, imagine what Sean McVay's group does.
And we don't have to imagine much. Matthew Stafford and the Rams hung 44 on this exact franchise two years ago, with Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams feasting. This Bills defense isn't any sturdier — they sit 29th in both rushing and passing success rate. Stafford is our No. 1 QB right now (62 PPR points over four 2026 games, 1,189 yards and 6 TDs), and this is the kind of matchup that fuels a monster week.
The Allen Equation
Josh Allen comes in as our #6 overall and #2 QB, riding 121 PPR points through four games this season (2026). His seven rushing scores already tell you how he's eating — but he'll be without D.J. Moore here, which trims the explosive downfield element against a Rams secondary that can hang with receivers.
That absence likely pushes Joe Brady toward the ground game. Expect a heavier James Cook workload, because leaning on hero ball into LA's corners probably isn't the winning formula. Allen's floor stays elite thanks to his legs, and his form is barely off — just 1.8 fantasy points below his season average over the last five.
The Fantasy Fallout
Everything about this game screams variance and upside. Two offenses, a soft Buffalo defense, and the kind of fourth-down aggression that can tip either squad past 40. If both teams convert on money downs, this is a track meet.
Start Stafford with full confidence — this is a top-tier spot for our QB1. Allen is an auto-start regardless of the Moore news. And don't sleep on Cook: the Moore absence and the Rams' run-funnel tendencies make him a sneaky usage spike. Kyren Williams (our #9 RB, 90 PPR points over four games in 2026) stays locked in too. Get your shootout pieces in the lineup.
