Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs Lead Fantasy Points Market Odds for 2026
Allen sits at a 14% chance to lead all of fantasy in 2026, but Gibbs and Bijan Robinson aren't far behind. Here's what the numbers say.
Montgomery's exit clears the backfield for a true workhorse role.
- Allen: 14% to lead all of fantasy scoring in 2026
- Gibbs at 13%, Robinson at 11% in same market
- Robinson: 369 PPR pts in 2025, our RB2
- Gibbs topped 1,000 rush yds each of last 2 seasons
- Montgomery signed with Houston, freeing carries
The 2026 fantasy football hierarchy is starting to take shape, and the early money agrees with the consensus: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson headline the field for overall points leader. Allen sits at the top of the market with a 14% implied chance, Gibbs trails at 13% and Robinson rounds out the trio at 11%. Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua sit just behind them at 10% each.
The Allen case is built on volume and efficiency. The former MVP averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game across 2025 and 24.6 per game over the past three seasons in six-point-TD scoring, while posting career highs in completion rate (69.3%) and yards per attempt (8.0) last year. Buffalo added D.J. Moore to a receiving room that badly needed a jolt, and if Keon Coleman rebounds from a rough rookie year, Allen's ceiling climbs even higher.
Gibbs Is the Backfield Now
Gibbs is the most intriguing name here because his situation just changed for the better. He cleared 1,000 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons while sharing a backfield with David Montgomery, and Montgomery's move to Houston in free agency opens the door for a workload spike. Gibbs averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game in 2025 and 15.4 over the last three seasons — and that was with a committee eating into his touches. He's projected as the No. 1 overall pick in one-QB leagues.
Robinson has the profile of a player who could jump this list, too. He put up 369 PPR points in 2025 (our RB2, No. 4 overall) despite scoring four fewer touchdowns than the year before. He led the entire league with a 30% tackle-avoid rate and ranked second in yards after contact per attempt (3.95). With Tyler Allgeier gone to Arizona, the goal-line work that suppressed Robinson's touchdown total should funnel back his way.
The Fantasy Fallout
For redraft purposes, the takeaway is simple: all three are locked-in first-round anchors, and the market is just haggling over the order. Robinson's 2025 finish — up 1.5 fantasy points per game over his season average across his last five — makes him the safest floor of the group. But Gibbs is the one whose arrow points most clearly up. If you're building around upside, buy the profile before the workload change gets fully priced in. Montgomery's departure isn't a rumor; it's a signed contract, and Detroit's lead back is now the guy without a timeshare.
